Is World of Tanks Playing with Loaded Dice?

I’m getting the impression that somewhere in the guts of World of Tanks there’s some loaded dice. I’ve been in too many battles where one side or the other just disintegrates under the least amount of pressure and I think it’s down to two possibilities:

One – the random number generation for dispersion, penetration, and damage has a factor that is rolled per battle and side not per shot

I think there’s a lot of people who have experienced battles where they and their side have either blown through the opposition with little effort or been unable to dent them even with expert marksmanship.

This could be due to a factor, think of it as a bonus or penalty, which is applied randomly to each team at the beginning of the battle, which modifies the random dispersion, penetration, and damage rolls. Effectively giving one random side a massive advantage most of the time.

i.e. Team Green (TG) and Team Red (TR) both have a random factor applied to their RNG rolls at the beginning of the battle. Let’s say that the number can be either plus or minus 0, 5, or 10% and the RNG adds a further +/- 0-15% per shot.

– In the first battle Team Green gets +10% and Team Red -10% resulting in Team Green wiping out Team Red very quickly.
– In the second battle Team Green gets -5% and Team Red gets +5% resulting in a close win for team red.
– In the third battle both teams get a +0% bonus resulting in a close battle that goes down to the wire and where the skilled players actually make a difference.

I have a rule of thumb when playing arty, if the first couple of shots go wide then so will all the others. It appears that the amount you deviate by (but not the direction) is fixed for the match. Those matches where the first shot hits on the nail are going to be the ones where you rule as arty, the ones where the first shot hits the edge of the circle aren’t going to be so good…

Two – matchmaking groups stock tanks and/or 50% crews together

We’ve all seen the strange way that the matchmaking system places groups of similar tanks on one side of the battle. It isn’t properly randomised which leads to the theory that there’s other strange coding going on in the matchmaking. If one of those is to group together stock tanks (i.e. not fully upgraded) or 50% crews (i.e. any crews less than 100%) then that again gives one side an enormous advantage.

Even if the matchmaker doesn’t factor in stock tanks, crew skill, or even player ‘skill’/win rate/premium account, simply not balancing the teams evenly can result in a significant advantage for one side over the other. 3 KV-1 tanks as top tanks vs 3 Shermans is an example I’ve seen a couple of times. Allowing tier I tanks to platoon with tier X tanks screws over the side that gets the tier I.The weighting system used in the matchmaker doesn’t work to provide balanced teams in a significant number of battles. This has just the same effect and is just as bad as fixing the random rolls for the match.

Loaded Dice

Nobody wants to play a game where one side is given loaded dice. It’s obvious to many players that something strange is going on in the game, and, as far as I’m concerned, it’s up to the developers to assure us that their game design is genuinely randomised to give all players a fair chance.

Paranoid Conspiracy Theories

Please note that I don’t think there’s a conspiracy and Wargaming aren’t ‘out to get you’ by rigging your matches to lose when you creep above a 50% win rate. It’s all down to the badly coded Team Win Generator accidentally fixing 70% of matches with one sided bonuses and/or bad matchmaking. It explains absolutely why you can only have a significant effect one battle in ten despite playing the same every time. It also makes building any real skill ten times as difficult because for every time you repeat the same action you don’t get the same result. They don’t need to fix matches for individual players as fixing matches randomly accomplishes the same ends. This is Wargaming’s version of balance: If everyone gets screwed equally then the game is balanced

Testing the Hypothesis

For anyone who wants to run their own test what needs to be looked for is a correlation between winning a match and having ‘good luck’ with regards to hits/penetrations/criticals and losing a match with ‘bad luck’ on hits, penetrations, and 0 damage criticals.

i.e. record your hits and misses, your bounces, and your criticals. For arty record your deviation from the center of the circle. and record the outcome (i.e. 15-0 loss, 2-10 win, etc) and how fast it happened. Even simply recording hits/misses and wins losses would help. This is what I’ll be doing.

If the Team Win Generator is setting a single bonus/penalty at the beginning of a match then the majority of shots will perform badly in some matches, well in others, and ‘average’ in a small number.